@chrisod I don't know. On certain issues, the betting markets can be way off, trend on noise. ElectionBettingOdds.com for example keeps reporting that Celebrities will win the presidency with odds of 1%-5%, which it should be more like 1 in 100,000 - Or it has some information! Betting markets in aggregate often are reasonably efficient. Also, maybe this is what happens when a question is more like a betting market on flipping a coin, but people just don't know it yet.
Post
November 13, 2023