How I'm interpreting election betting odds today:
The BS numbers, like a positive chance a celebrity is president, is a proxy for error bars. So a 30% chance that someone will beat Biden in the primaries, mean to me, that all the other numbers should be read as +/-30%, so the Trump vs Biden is 50/30, but +/- 30 on each of those. Final winner is 50/50 R/D so the again, +/-20%
uspol