Election betting odds says there is a 1 in 20 chance that MD will vote for the clown. There is also a chance I will win the lotto, be hit by an astroid & be appointed senator on the same day, too. I just don't have a good intuition for low prob events.
Feels like the market for these sorts of bets must be inefficient because of the weird beliefs of someone willing to bet on a near-sure loser bet.
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