I'm calling it for Harris.
- Polls are trash (<1% response), but journalists can't give up on them, 50/50 with true error bars is 0/100-100/0
- Betting market is is manipulated
- He is losing on fundamentals
- He is losing on campaign effectiveness
I'm not saying if they didn't keep polling, they wouldn't keep getting 50/50, I'm saying that after you take into account that the 99% are different from the 1% who answer polls, then the true range is 1/99 to 99/1 When you can't measure non-response factors, it's all stats trash
♡ 0 ↻ 0I was so wrong. Did not see him winning the popular vote. My preferred theory is that the apolitical people (non-ideologues) voted for change because of high house prices, high prices of goods, low wage growth, etc. (Other theories can be true too and not explain enough)
♡ 1 ↻ 0