My theory of remote work: High performers productivity went up. but Entry level...
My theory of remote work:
High performers productivity went up.
but
Entry level productivity tanked
Some people stopped working because no one was looking anymore
BS jobs continued to exist, but they were now a form of accidental private charity.*
In net, the two effects cancelled each other out.
Self-replies
* When a rich man pays a guard to unnecessarily guard his office, he shows off his status and gets warm fuzzies. When a rich man pays a guard to work from home, the company's productivity doesn't drop, the guard wasn't productive, but now the guard is on payroll and not projecting status for the chain of command. A rational rich man would order the guard back to the office or fire them.
But Matt, what about all-remote companies that are doing okay? I bet those are all staffed by people who a proven high performers who probably were juniors, at an office, when they were younger.
When I was 8 I got a computer & learned to code, with very little outside help. Now, as a parent, I'm astonished that my kids which much better hardware need so much poking and prodding and external motivation to learn to code. I've tried neglecting them, ignoring them, giving them total freedom, I've tried "not forcing them" and nothing works.
I think this is why CEO in frustration are doing the RTOs, even if it in the short run means losing some high performers.